Why Bhabanipur, once a safe seat, is now a battleground for Mamata Banerjee

For over a decade, Bhabanipur was considered the “impregnable fortress” of the Trinamool Congress (TMC). It is the neighborhood that houses the Chief Minister’s residence on Harish Chatterjee Street and encompasses the sacred Kalighat temple. However, as of Thursday, March 19, 2026, the political air in South Kolkata is charged with an unfamiliar tension.

Add businessleague.in as a Preferred Source

Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1

The Demographic Jigsaw: 70% Non-Bengali Factor

Bhabanipur is arguably Kolkata’s most cosmopolitan constituency. Approximately 60% to 70% of its voters are non-Bengali, comprising a significant Gujarati and Marwari business community, alongside Sikh, Bihari, and Muslim populations.

• The Shift: While the TMC traditionally relied on a “Bengali Pride” narrative, the BJP has successfully tapped into the urban middle-class anxieties of the trading communities, who are increasingly vocal about industrial stagnation and ease of doing business.

Ward-Wise Friction: Where the BJP is Gaining

The constituency consists of eight KMC wards. Recent electoral data reveals a stark geographic split:

• TMC Strongholds: Wards 73, 77, and 82 (Areas with high concentrations of underprivileged residents and minority groups).

• BJP Growth Zones: Wards 63, 70, 71, 72, and 74 (Business districts and high-rise residential pockets).

  In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP led in several of these wards, signaling that the “elite urban vote” is drifting away from the ruling party.

Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1

Suvendu’s Strategy: “Pinning Down” the CM

By fielding Suvendu Adhikari from Bhabanipur, the BJP aims to “trap” Mamata Banerjee. Senior BJP leader Dilip Ghosh recently noted that by forcing the CM to campaign intensely for her own seat, the BJP is effectively reducing her “elbow room” to travel and campaign for other TMC candidates across the state. Adhikari, buoyed by his 2021 Nandigram victory, is campaigning on the slogan of “unseating the defeated candidate” once again.

Reality Check

The TMC’s greatest weapon remains its booth-level organizational machinery. Unlike the BJP, which often relies on “waves” and high-profile rallies, the TMC cadre in Bhabanipur is entrenched in the daily lives of residents through social welfare clubs and local committees. Furthermore, schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar (monthly cash transfers to women) have created a massive “loyalty base” among the lower-income segments of Bhabanipur that the BJP’s “industrial growth” promise has yet to penetrate.

The Loopholes

The BJP claims that over 50,000 names were deleted from the Bhabanipur voter list following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). In fact, this is a “Demographic Loophole”—while the BJP suggests these were their voters, the TMC counters that these were “ghost voters” or those who had moved out of the city. Still, the “Nandigram Loophole” remains; Suvendu is contesting from two seats. If he wins Bhabanipur but loses Nandigram, he remains a giant-killer; if he loses both, his political capital within the BJP may take a severe hit.

Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1

What This Means for You

If you are a resident of South Kolkata, prepare for a month of intense local campaigning. First, realize that traffic around Jadu Babu’s Bazar and Ashutosh Mukherjee Road will be heavily disrupted by high-profile rallies starting next week.

Then, if you are an undecided voter, understand that this election is a choice between two distinct models. You are choosing between a Welfare State (focusing on immediate social security) and a Growth State (focusing on white-collar jobs and infrastructure). Finally, understand that the result on May 4 will determine not just who represents Bhabanipur, but whether the “Kolkata Elite” has officially broken away from the Trinamool’s decade-long dominance.

What’s Next

Expect Mamata Banerjee to launch her local “Paayay Paayay” (Step by Step) march through the wards of Bhabanipur on Monday, March 23. Then, look for Suvendu Adhikari’s “Kolkata War Room” to release a specific manifesto for South Kolkata by early April. Finally, expect the Phase 2 polling on April 29 to see record-high voter turnout in the high-rise complexes of Bhabanipur.

Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1

End….

Add businessleague.in as a Preferred Source