The math is not pretty. The South African series win—their first in India in 25 years—catapulted them to 75.00% PCT at No. 2, right behind Australia (100% PCT). Meanwhile, India is left scrambling.
The Bare Minimum: Winning Six Tests
Historically, qualification demands a 60%-65% PCT. If India wants to hit the realistic 61.1% mark, they need a near-perfect run in the remaining nine matches.
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Scenario for 61.1% PCT: 6 Wins, 2 Draws, 1 Loss.
Anything less than six wins is probably fatal. We can’t take anything for granted, especially with the tough away tours coming up.
The Nine Matches of Destiny
The remaining schedule is a gut-check. India has to target $4$ wins in the 4 away Tests just to take the pressure off the biggest series of the cycle.
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Sri Lanka (Away, 2 Tests – August 2026): We have a good record here, but an away sweep is still a big ask. Must be 2-0.
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New Zealand (Away, 2 Tests – Oct-Dec 2026): A historically difficult place to win. The loss column must not increase here, or nothing. Target: 1-1 minimum.
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Australia (Home, 5 Tests – Jan-Feb 2027): This is the final frontier. We need to dominate. Target: 3-2 or 4-1.
If we can sweep Sri Lanka (2 wins) and manage a 1-1 draw in New Zealand (1 win), that leaves us needing 3 more wins from the 5 Tests against Australia at home. That’s a huge lift, but it’s the only path now.
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