US-India Trade War: Experts Warn of Hikes Beyond 50% Tariff

US Tariff Threat Hardens: India’s Trade Strategy at a Crossroads

As of January 7, 2026, the trade relationship between India and the United States has entered a high-stakes phase. Following President Donald Trump’s warning that tariffs could rise “very quickly” beyond the existing 50% levy, experts and industry bodies are sounding the alarm on the future of Indian exports.

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1. The Current Tariff Landscape

The U.S. has already doubled import duties on Indian goods to 50% as part of its “reciprocal tariff” policy and as a specific penalty for India’s energy ties with Russia.

• The 25% “Oil Penalty”: Half of the current 50% tariff is tied directly to India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil.

• Falling Exports: Data from GTRI (Global Trade Research Initiative) shows that Indian exports to the U.S. have already slumped 20.7% between May and November 2025.

• The “Hard Choice”: US lawmakers are currently backing legislation that could push tariffs as high as 500% on nations that continue to fund the Russian war machine through oil purchases.

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2. Impact on Core Export Sectors

While some sectors remain resilient, labor-intensive industries are facing a potential “washout” in the first half of 2026.

Critical Deadline: Exporters warn that January 15, 2026, is the cutoff for summer/autumn bulk orders.⁸ If a trade deal isn’t reached by mid-month, the entire first half of the year could be lost.

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3. Strategic Shift: Diversification vs. Diplomacy

Exporters’ bodies like FIEO suggest that while the tariffs are painful, they are acting as a “catalyst” for India to de-risk its economy.

• Market Diversification: India is accelerating FTA (Free Trade Agreement) talks with the UK, EU, Oman, and New Zealand to reduce its 18% export dependency on the U.S.

• “Operation Sindoor”: The Indian Embassy has hired a firm led by a Trump aide to navigate the “America First” landscape and negotiate the removal of the 50% tariff.

• Domestic Reform: Budget 2026 is expected to include a massive overhaul of the customs framework to make Indian manufacturing more competitive against rivals like Vietnam and Mexico.

4. India-US Trade by the Numbers (Apr-Nov 2025)

Despite the friction, the scale of trade remains massive, showing the interdependence of both nations.

• • Exports to US: $59.04 Billion (Up 11.38% YoY)

  • Imports from US: $35.40 Billion (Up 13.49% YoY)

  • 2030 Goal: Both nations aim to reach $500 Billion in bilateral trade, though current tariffs put this target at risk.¹

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