US ambassador Sergio Gor hints at Venezuelan oil for Delhi, claims India shifting from Russian crude

In a significant revelation at the AI Impact Summit 2026, US Ambassador Sergio Gor confirmed Friday that Washington and New Delhi are in “active negotiations” to facilitate India’s purchase of Venezuelan oil. The move is part of a broader US strategy to permanently detach the world’s third-largest oil consumer from Russian energy supplies following the recent political transition in Caracas.

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“The Department of Energy is speaking to the Ministry of Energy here; we are hoping to have some news on that very soon,” Gor stated. While India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) maintained a more cautious tone, spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal iterated that India remains open to “exploring the commercial merits” of any crude options, including those from Venezuela.

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Venezuelan Oil: The New Energy Frontier

Following the US-backed ousting of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026, Washington has granted marketing licenses to major trading houses like Vitol and Trafigura.

• Corporate Movement: Indian majors like IOC, HPCL, BPCL, and Reliance have reportedly already placed orders for Venezuelan crude.

• Objective: To replace the heavy Russian grades that Indian refineries have optimized for over the last two years with similar, now-available Venezuelan alternatives.

The Tariff-Oil Quid Pro Quo

The ambassador’s remarks underscored the transactional nature of the new India-US Interim Trade Deal.

1. The Carrot: A reduction in US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%.

2. The Stick: The removal of a 25% punitive levy was explicitly conditioned on India’s “commitment” to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.

Gor noted that an Executive Order specifically on oil monitoring has already been signed. This includes a mechanism overseen by the US Commerce and Treasury Departments to ensure compliance, with a safeguard clause to reimpose 50% tariffs if Russian imports resume.

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Board of Peace: India’s Observer Status

Beyond energy, New Delhi is stepping up its engagement with the Trump administration’s “New Diplomacy.” On Thursday, India attended the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace (BoP) in Washington as an observer. Represented by Chargé d’affaires Namgya Khampa, India expressed support for the Gaza Peace Plan and UN Security Council Resolution 2803.

Ambassador Gor also teased a visit by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the coming months. This visit is expected to finalize the “tweaking points” of the trade deal and set the stage for the rescheduled Quad Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi later this year.

Reality Check

The US claims India has a “commitment” to stop buying Russian oil. Still, the MEA continues to use the language of “diversification” rather than “cessation.” Therefore, while the 18% tariff rate is a massive win for Indian exporters, the “sovereignty” of India’s energy policy is under intense scrutiny. In fact, if global oil prices spike, New Delhi might find the “commercial merits” of discounted Russian crude hard to resist, potentially triggering a fresh “tariff war” with Washington.

The Loopholes

The monitoring mechanism tracks “direct and indirect” purchases. In fact, Russian oil often reaches global markets through blending hubs or ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean. Therefore, proving a specific barrel is “Russian” becomes a forensic challenge. Still, the US has signaled it will use satellite tracking and financial trail audits to close these loopholes, making it significantly riskier for Indian refiners to maintain the status quo.

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What This Means for You

If you are an Indian exporter to the US, the 18% tariff rate (effective April 2026) is your green light for expansion. First, realize that this lower rate is tied to the national energy shift; any diplomatic friction could see it revoked overnight. Then, watch for retail fuel prices in India; while Venezuelan oil is a good alternative, it may not match the “deep discounts” Russia provided during 2024–25, potentially leading to higher costs at the pump.

Finally, understand that Marco Rubio’s visit will be the final hurdle for the trade deal. You should expect a surge in US-focused stocks—particularly in pharmaceuticals and gems—as the formal notification for the 18% rate is issued later this month. Before the next Quad meeting, follow the Board of Peace updates to see if India transitions from “observer” to a “full member,” which would signal a definitive tilt toward the US-led West Asian security framework.

What’s Next

The US is expected to issue the formal tariff reduction notification by the end of February 2026. Then, an Indian trade delegation will travel to Washington next week to finalize the “tens of thousands” of specific product points. Finally, the Interim Trade Pact will become fully operational in April 2026, coinciding with the first major shipments of Venezuelan oil arriving at Indian ports.

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