India is putting up a “steel wall” to ring in the new year.1 As of Wednesday, December 31, 2025, the Finance Ministry has officially hit the “go” button on a three-year safeguard duty of up to 12% on steel imports.2
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The thing is, this isn’t just a random tax. Or nothing. Let’s be real, the domestic industry was getting hammered by a “sudden and sharp” flood of cheap steel from China, Vietnam, and Nepal.3 Those too.
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The New Duty Structure: Field Notes
The government is tapering the tax over three years to give local mills a “glide path” to competitiveness.4 Here’s how the math breaks down.
| Period | Duty Rate | Coverage |
| Year 1 (Apr 2025 – Apr 2026) | 12% | Non-alloy and alloy flat steel (HRC, sheets, plates). |
| Year 2 (Apr 2026 – Apr 2027) | 11.5% | Tapered to allow for gradual adjustment. |
| Year 3 (Apr 2027 – Apr 2028) | 11% | Final year before the “safeguard” expires. |
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The “China-Vietnam” Loophole
And here’s the kicker: the DGTR found that a lot of Chinese steel was being “laundered” through Vietnam and Nepal to dodge existing anti-dumping rules. This new duty closes that gap.5 It basically raises the landed cost of Chinese Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) from about ₹48,000 to over ₹55,000 per tonne, making Indian steel (trading around ₹47,200) the obvious choice again.6
Market Reaction: A New Year’s Rally
The stock market absolutely loved this news today.
Tata Steel jumped 3.3% to reach a 2025 high.
JSW Steel and Jindal Steel (JSPL) saw gains of 3-4% in early trade.7
The “Stainless” Exception: Specialty steel and stainless steel are not included in this specific order, so those prices shouldn’t spike for manufacturers.8
It’s an ongoing situation where India is reacting to the “Trump Effect.” With the US imposing 50% tariffs on Chinese goods earlier this year, China has been desperate to dump its excess steel anywhere it can. India was the easiest target. Not anymore.
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