The yellow metal is on fire. Gold futures on the MCX closed higher for the fourth straight month, reaching ₹1,29,599 per 10 gm. This puts it barely ₹2,700 away from its all-time peak of ₹1,32,294. The consensus is bullish, fueled by a perfect storm of global and local factors.
The Macro Triggers: Fed Hopes and Weak Dollar
The primary driver is the US Federal Reserve. The thing is, traders are now betting heavily on interest rate cuts.
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Fed Rate Cut: Expectations for a $25$ bps rate cut in the December Fed meeting have jumped to almost 87% (Search results confirm this strong probability, sitting around 84%–85%). Dovish commentary from Fed officials, coupled with mixed US economic data (resilient labor but soft consumer confidence), has opened that window. Lower rates kill the appeal of the US dollar and boost gold’s price.
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Weak Dollar and Uncertainty: The US Dollar Index is struggling to hold the 100 level. A weak dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, and that’s a massive catalyst. And what draws people there? Political uncertainty from the Donald Trump administration—plans regarding immigration and federal benefits—which adds to global risk, pushing money into safe-haven assets like gold.
Domestic Fuel: Weddings and Imports
It’s not all about the US. India has its own massive support systems right now.
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Wedding Season Boom: Domestically, there is huge physical demand. There are an estimated 45–50 lakh weddings scheduled between early November and mid-December. That traditional period always drives gold purchases higher, underpinning local market rates.
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Import Surge: India’s gold imports surged by nearly 200% in October 2025, hitting a record 14.72 billion. This demand-supply pressure adds another layer of support to the domestic price structure. Ross Maxwell of VT Markets noted that the India-UAE CEPA talks are aiming for an auction-based quota system to manage supply, but for now, demand is high.
The Technical Forecast: New Peak in Sight
Experts are extremely optimistic about the momentum carrying through.
Sugandha Sachdeva sees a clear path forward, stating that if domestic prices can hold above the psychological ₹1,30,000 per 10 gm mark, they are highly likely to aim for new all-time highs of ₹1,34,000 per 10 gm and beyond. On the global front, the key hurdle is $\$4,250$ per ounce, with a breakout aiming for 4,400 per ounce.
The underlying geopolitical risk from the Russia-Ukraine war continues to favor safe-haven demand, keeping the environment bullish. The technical picture is strong. Dip buying remains the safest approach, offering the best value in a highly volatile but upward-trending market.
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