Canada changes tack on linking India to ‘crimes’ ahead of PM Carney’s visit

The diplomatic ice between Ottawa and New Delhi is finally melting. In a move that signals a total overhaul of Canada’s foreign policy toward South Asia, the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared that it no longer views the Indian government as a participant in violent crimes or foreign interference within its borders.

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This announcement serves as the essential “clearance” required for Carney’s upcoming multi-nation tour, which features India as its center-piece. It effectively ends a three-year period of hostility that began when the previous administration publicly accused Indian agents of involvement in the 2023 assassination of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

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The “Pragmatic” Reset: Moving Past the Trudeau Era

The Carney administration is adopting what insiders call a “pragmatic” outlook.

• The Statement: “I really don’t think we’d be taking this trip if we thought these kinds of activities were continuing,” a senior official stated, essentially drawing a line under the past conflict.

• Diplomatic Channels: National Security Advisers (NSAs) from both countries have reportedly been in “robust” dialogue for months to reach this de-escalation.

• Strategic Necessity: With the US-Canada trade relationship facing headwinds, Ottawa is viewing India—the world’s most populous nation—as a vital alternative economic anchor.

Dual-Track Approach: Security and Trade

International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu has emphasized that Canada can now “do two things at the same time.”

• Law Enforcement: Canada and India have agreed to appoint dedicated liaison officers in each country to collaborate on trans-border crimes, specifically targeting extortion rackets that have plagued the South Asian diaspora in Canada.

• Investment Sectors: The visit aims to unlock partnerships in Artificial Intelligence, Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), and critical minerals, areas where India’s massive demand meets Canada’s supply capabilities.

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Internal Friction: Protests and Local Concerns

Despite the official thaw, the “Nijjar ghost” has not entirely vanished from Canadian domestic politics.

• Protests: Demonstrators from Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) gathered on Parliament Hill this Wednesday to protest the rapprochement, citing the RCMP’s earlier findings of Indian interference.

• Public Debate: While the government is moving forward, segments of the diaspora remain concerned about security, necessitating a delicate balancing act by Carney during his visit.

Reality Check

The Carney government’s shift is a classic “realpolitik” maneuver. Still, the criminal cases against the four individuals charged in the Nijjar killing are ongoing in Canadian courts. Therefore, while the diplomatic link to the Indian government is being severed to facilitate trade, the legal process remains a separate, slower-moving entity. In fact, the “confidence” expressed by officials is as much about economic survival as it is about verified intelligence.

The Loopholes

The officials stated they are confident “that activity is not continuing.” In fact, this is a “Temporal Loophole”—by focusing on the present lack of activity, the government avoids having to formally retract or apologize for Trudeau’s past allegations. Therefore, both sides can “move on” without either losing face. Still, the “Liaison Officer” loophole is key; it allows India to have a formal footprint in Canadian law enforcement circles, something New Delhi has demanded for years to track extremist funding.

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What This Means for You

If you are a student or a professional looking for a Canadian Visa, this is excellent news. First, realize that the diplomatic reset will likely lead to a speedier processing of visas and a return to full staffing levels at Canadian consulates in India (which were drastically reduced in 2023). Then, if you are an investor in energy or tech, watch for new bilateral MoUs that could open up lucrative cross-border projects.

Finally, understand that Direct Flights between more Indian and Canadian cities are likely to be announced during the 9-day tour. You should monitor the official itineraries for stops in Mumbai and New Delhi, as these will be the hubs for major business announcements. Before you travel, check if the “Liaison Officer” program results in new reporting requirements for high-value transfers between the two countries.

What’s Next

PM Mark Carney will arrive in India early next week for a one-on-one meeting with PM Modi. Then, he will travel to Mumbai for a CEO forum focused on energy and AI. Finally, look for a “Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” (CEPA) update by the end of the trip, which could serve as the formal foundation for the new India-Canada era.

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