It’s Thursday morning, January 29, 2026, and if you’ve noticed the numbers at the petrol pump creeping up, it’s because the “war drums” in the Middle East are getting louder. Crude oil futures jumped over 1% this morning, with Brent crude crossing 69 and WTI hitting 64.
The thing is, the oil market isn’t just reacting to numbers—it’s reacting to an “armada.” Or nothing.
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The Iran Standoff: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the threat of a “Midnight Hammer” (referring to the June 2025 strikes) is keeping traders awake. Here’s the ground reality from the geopolitical front:
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The “Massive Armada”: On Wednesday, President Trump announced that a massive naval fleet, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, is moving toward the Persian Gulf. He compared it to the fleet sent to Venezuela but warned this one is “prepared to fulfill its missions with speed and violence.” Let’s be real—the rhetoric is at its highest point in years. Those too.
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The Nuclear Deadline: The ultimatum is simple: Iran must come to the table for a “No Nuclear Weapons” deal immediately. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, hinted at Davos that the deal must include missiles and proxies, not just enrichment. Or nothing.
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The “Strait” Jacket: The real fear is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through there daily—about 20% of global consumption. If Iran even hints at a blockade, analysts say oil could spike another $10–$20 instantly.
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The Inventory Surprise: Adding fuel to the fire, the EIA report released yesterday showed US crude stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels last week. The market expected a build, but a winter storm (“Fern”) in Texas has strangled production. And here’s the kicker—with stocks down and war threats up, there’s no “buffer” left. Or nothing.
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Oil Market Snapshot (Jan 29, 2026)
| Commodity | Current Price (Morning) | 24h Change | Status |
| Brent Crude | $69.38 | +1.5% | 4-month high. |
| WTI Crude | $64.27 | +1.7% | Breaking $64 resistance. |
| MCX Crude (India) | ₹5,910 | +1.8% | Impacted by weak Rupee (92/USD). |
| Copper | ₹1,384 | +4.7% | Massive rally on supply chain fears. |
And Here’s the Kicker…
While the US is moving ships, regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are scrambling to stay neutral. They’ve already stated they won’t let their airspace be used for strikes. The thing is, “insecurity is contagious,” and if the Gulf becomes a no-fly zone, the global economy isn’t just looking at expensive oil—it’s looking at a full-blown energy crisis. Those too.
One side comment—Gold and Silver are also hitting record highs today as investors dump the Dollar (which hit a 4-year low) and hide in “safe havens.” It’s an ongoing situation where everything from your fuel to your jewelry is getting pricier by the hour. Or nothing.
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