Oil Prices Rise Jan 12: Iran Protests Escalating & Trump’s 500% Russian Oil Tariff Threat

The oil market is currently a powder keg of geopolitical tension. As of Monday, January 12, 2026, global crude benchmarks are edging higher—Brent at 63.42 and WTI at 59.18—as traders weigh a massive uprising in Iran against a chaotic “re-entry” of Venezuelan oil into the US market.¹

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The thing is, the “safe” oil supply we counted on last month is suddenly looking very thin. Or nothing. Let’s be real, with Iran’s protests entering their third week and Trump threatening to “greenlight” 500% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, the global energy map is being redrawn in real-time. Those too.

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The “Crude Chaos” Log: Field Notes

It’s an ongoing situation where politics is moving faster than the pipelines can keep up.

• The Iran Unrest: Protests are entering their 21st day, and at least 500 deaths have been reported.² The thing is, Iran pumps about 3.2 million barrels a day. Analysts at ANZ are warning that if workers in the oil fields “down tools” (as some have called for), 1.9 million barrels of daily exports could vanish overnight.³

• The “Trump Meeting”: Tomorrow, Tuesday, January 13, Trump is meeting with senior advisers to discuss “strong options” for Iran.⁴ The thing is, he’s already signaled he might intervene if the Iranian government continues its crackdown. And then there’s his hint about “negotiating,” though he’s keeping the military option on the table.

• The Russia Tariff Bomb: Senator Lindsey Graham just confirmed that Trump “greenlit” a bill that would slap 500% tariffs on any country—including India, China, and Brazil—that continues to import Russian-origin petroleum or uranium.⁵ The thing is, Reliance has already reportedly stopped taking Russian cargoes at its Jamnagar refinery for January in anticipation.⁶

• The Venezuela Gamble: Last week, US forces reportedly captured and removed Nicolás Maduro.⁷ Now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is saying more sanctions will be lifted “as early as this week” to get that oil flowing.⁸ The thing is, ExxonMobil’s CEO just called the country “uninvestable,” which has Trump threatening to block them from future deals for “playing too cute.”⁹

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Energy Market Snapshot: Jan 12, 2026

[Table: Global Commodity Status]

And Here’s the Kicker…

While the world is looking at Iran, the real “black swan” might be the Russian Sanctions Bill. If India faces a 500% tariff on its exports to the US just because it bought “cheap” Russian oil, the trade fallout would be historic. The thing is, PM Modi and Trump haven’t yet reached a “trade deal” to roll these back, despite “three Fridays” of negotiations last year.¹⁰

It’s an ongoing situation where the market is balancing between a “global glut” (too much oil) and “geopolitical spikes” (the risk of losing Iran’s 3M barrels). If Trump’s meeting tomorrow ends with “military options,” expect Brent to blow past 70 before the week is out.

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End…

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