Oil Prices Dip to 65 as US Inventories Build, Countering Iran Supply Risks

The oil market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between two massive geopolitical fires. As of Wednesday, January 14, 2026, Brent is hovering around 65.20 and WTI at 60.90.

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The thing is, we’re seeing a slight “pause” today after a four-day rally that sent prices to an 11-week high. Or nothing. Let’s be real, traders are basically holding their breath to see if the US actually follows through on military threats against Tehran. Those too.

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The “Oil & Unrest” Log: Field Notes

It’s an ongoing situation where the “geopolitical risk premium” is currently worth about $4 a barrel.

• The Iran Pressure Cooker: Massive anti-government protests have been rocking Iran for three weeks. The thing is, the rial has crashed to 1.4 million per dollar, and Trump just slapped a 25% tariff on any country still trading with the regime. And here’s the kicker—Trump warned on Truth Social that “help is on the way” for protesters, while his Defense Secretary hinted at “options beyond air strikes.”

• The Venezuela Factor: While Iran is pushing prices up, Venezuela is starting to pull them down. The thing is, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, the US is already moving to “rebuild” the industry. Two supertankers just left Venezuelan waters with 3.6 million barrels—the first wave of a promised 50-million-barrel supply deal with the US.

• The “Stockpile” Shock: The API reported a massive 5.3 million barrel build in US crude inventories yesterday. The thing is, analysts only expected 2 million. And then there’s the EIA report due later today—if it confirms that Americans are sitting on a mountain of oil, that $65 Brent might slip back into the 50s.

• The Caspian Disruption: Just to make things messier, drone strikes and bad weather have cut Kazakhstan’s exports through the Caspian Pipeline by nearly 50%.

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Oil Price Dashboard: Jan 14, 2026

And Here’s the Kicker…

Goldman Sachs is already predicting a “massive surplus” later this year. The thing is, they think once the Iran protests settle or the regime shifts, the sheer volume of Venezuelan and US oil will crash Brent to 54 by Q4. And then there’s the talk of a “Tech Titans” strategy—AI-driven drilling is making US shale so efficient that we might hit record production despite the wars.

It’s an ongoing situation where the market is basically a “disaster lottery.” If a single drone hits an Iranian refinery tonight, we’re looking at 80 oil by tomorrow morning.

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End…

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