Is ₹1 crore enough to retire in India? How long it may last in FD, SWP, and Equity

The magic number of ₹1 crore has long been the gold standard for Indian retirement dreams. However, a comprehensive new study by OmniScience Capital, titled “The Science of Retirement Planning,” suggests that this figure may be a financial mirage for those planning a multi-decade retirement in 2026.

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The report stress-tests four common strategies against a 40-year horizon, assuming a starting withdrawal of ₹6 lakh per year. The findings are a wake-up call: the “safest” investments often carry the highest risk of outliving your money.

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The Inflation Silent Killer: FD and Annuity Risks

Conservative strategies prioritize capital preservation, but they fail the inflation test.

• Fixed Deposits: While predictable, they lack the “growth engine” to beat rising costs. The study shows an FD-only corpus could be depleted by the mid-70s.

• Life Annuity: These offer guaranteed checks, but because they aren’t usually indexed to inflation, your purchasing power could crash by 30% by age 70 and a staggering 80% by age 100.

The SWP Struggle: Sequence-of-Returns Risk

Systematic Withdrawal Plans (SWPs) in hybrid funds are popular, but they face “Sequence-of-Returns” risk. If the market dips in the first 3–5 years of your retirement while you continue to withdraw, your capital may never recover. The study found SWP models typically fail by the early-80s.

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Equity Strategy: Why Being “Aggressive” is Safer

Counter-intuitively, an equity-biased strategy (with a dedicated debt buffer) proved most sustainable.

• How it works: Withdrawals are funded from a debt bucket during market downturns, allowing the equity portion to compound.

• Result: This was the only strategy that potentially generated a 30% surplus by age 100 relative to inflation-adjusted needs.

The “Breakeven” Number: How Much You Really Need

The report estimates how many “multiples” of your annual expenses you need to survive 40 years of retirement:

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Reality Check

The study shows ₹1 crore works only if you are willing to endure equity volatility. Still, most Indian retirees have a low stomach for seeing their portfolio drop by 20% in a single year. Therefore, while the math favors equities, the psychological risk is the real “fail point” for most. In fact, if you can’t stay invested during a market crash in your first three years of retirement, the equity-biased strategy becomes the most dangerous one of all.

The Loopholes

The “Life Annuity” model is often sold by insurance agents as the ultimate safety net. In fact, the “loophole” is the lack of inflation indexing. Agents often show you the fixed monthly check but fail to show you what that check buys 20 years from now. Therefore, an annuity is a “longevity hedge” but an “inflation nightmare.” Still, the Debt Buffer loophole in the equity strategy—keeping 3 years of expenses in cash—is what makes the “aggressive” plan actually feasible.

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What This Means for You

If you are approaching retirement with ₹1 crore, you must realize that “playing it safe” is a recipe for poverty at 80. First, move away from a 100% FD mindset. Then, establish a “Bucketing Strategy”:

1. Bucket 1 (1–3 years): Liquid/Cash for immediate needs.

2. Bucket 2 (4–7 years): Debt/Hybrid for stability.

3. Bucket 3 (7+ years): Pure Equity for inflation-beating growth.

Finally, understand that Sequence-of-Returns risk is your biggest enemy. You should avoid retiring or taking large withdrawals immediately after a major market peak. Before finalizing your plan, use a Monte Carlo simulation tool to see the probability of your corpus lasting until age 95.

What’s Next

Expect more “Retirement-Specialist” Mutual Funds to launch in 2026 that automate this “Bucketing” logic. Then, look for the PFRDA to introduce more equity-heavy options in the NPS Tier-II accounts specifically for retirees. Finally, consult a fee-only financial planner to calculate your specific “Multiple” based on your lifestyle and medical history.

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