apple is projected to overtake samsung as the world’s top phone maker with 10% yoy growth in 2025 and a 19.4% market share. the iphone 17’s success and the huge covid-era upgrade cycle are the key drivers.
The crown is coming home: apple is snatching #1
it’s happening. apple is set to reclaim the title of the world’s leading phone maker—a crown samsung has held onto for a long, long time. the iphone 17 line is a zabardast hit, or nothing.
counterpoint research just dropped the numbers, and they are wild.
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Apple’s projected growth: a massive 10% year-over-year increase in phone sales for 2025. that happened.
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Samsung’s growth: they are only expected to hit 4.6%. that’s not enough to hold the lead.
this growth puts apple at a projected 19.4% market share globally. it’s not a small win; it’s the first time since 2011 that apple will be the absolute #1 in terms of shipment volume.
Why the jump? the covid upgrade bomb
the thing is, it’s not just the phone itself. the market is reaching an “inflection point,“ as analyst yang wang noted.
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Initial momentum: in the first month of availability, iphone 17 sales jumped 22% while the broader market shrunk by 2.7%. and in october, apple’s sales were up 37% yoy compared to the market’s 8%. massive difference.
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Upgrade cycle: those consumers who bought their smartphones during the covid-19 boom? they are all due for an upgrade now. that happened.
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Secondhand feeder: plus, over 358 million secondhand iphones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025. those users are a huge, pre-qualified base ready to jump to a new iphone in the coming years.
Looking ahead: foldables and the ‘e’ model
tim cook already guided that this holiday quarter will be apple’s “biggest ever.” the momentum is real, despite reports that the iphone air model had a tepid response—that didn’t slow the overall surge.
analysts are so confident in this shift, they predict apple will stay the world’s top smartphone seller until at least 2029. what’s backing that long-term view?
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Foldable iphone: rumored to be coming soon, a huge new form factor for apple.
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Iphone 17e: the budget-friendly model that keeps the entry-level door open, which is tipped to get an a19 chip and dynamic island.
it’s an ongoing, high-stakes game for global dominance, and apple is winning big right now.
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