Commodities 2026: Gold Rebounds, Oil Dips on India-US Trade Deal & Iran Nuclear Talks

It’s Tuesday afternoon, February 3, 2026, and if the global markets feel like they’re breathing a sigh of relief today, it’s because the “Precious Meltdown” of the last few days has finally hit a floor. We’re seeing a classic “V-shaped” recovery in gold and silver, but the energy and industrial metals markets are still navigating some pretty choppy waters.

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The thing is, between a new hawkish Fed nominee and a sudden shift in India’s oil strategy, the old rulebook just got tossed out the window. Or nothing.

Market Reset: Field Notes

It’s an ongoing situation where the “Trump Trade” is colliding with geopolitical reality. Here’s the ground reality from the desks:

• The “Warsh” Shock: Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed on Friday was the match that lit the fire. Warsh is a known hawk—he likes a strong dollar and isn’t a fan of loose liquidity. The result? A record-breaking 9% single-day drop in gold and a 36% crash in silver since Friday. But today, the buyers are back. Gold is clawing its way back to $4,800/oz as people realize the structural demand hasn’t changed. Those too.

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• The India-US Oil Pivot: This is the big one for energy. Trump just confirmed that India is “ceasing” Russian oil purchases in exchange for lower tariffs (18%). This has immediately cooled the “oil risk premium.” ICE Brent settled lower as the market anticipates more Russian crude sitting on ships with nowhere to go. Let’s be real—this is a massive blow to the Urals discount. And then the price pressure followed.

• The EU’s Next Target: The European Union is reportedly finalizing a ban on Russian copper, platinum, iridium, and rhodium. This targets Norilsk Nickel, which had been “too big to sanction” until now. With copper already in a supply deficit for AI data centers and EVs, this move could send industrial metals into a new super-cycle. It’s a bit messy.

• Iran Nuclear Hope: Oil prices are also dipping because President Pezeshkian just ordered his Foreign Minister to start nuclear talks with the US. Trump’s “deal-maker” approach might actually lead to a framework in Istanbul this Friday. The market is betting on diplomacy over “bad things” happening. Or nothing.

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Commodity Pulse: Feb 3, 2026

And Here’s the Kicker…

European gas storage is now below 41%. That’s significantly lower than the 5-year average. The thing is, while milder weather is providing temporary relief, the continent is more dependent on US LNG than ever before. If the US government shutdown drags on and disrupts export data or processing, Europe’s “energy security” could get very expensive, very fast. Those too.

One side comment—the CME Group raised margin requirements on metal futures yesterday, which forced the last of the “weak hands” out. Authentic, but definitely a move that leaves the market in the hands of the big institutional players now. It’s an ongoing situation. Or nothing.

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End…

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