It’s Saturday afternoon, January 31, 2026, and if you’ve been watching the fuel gauges, the global oil map just got a massive “Trump-era” rewrite. The US is now officially dangling Venezuelan crude in front of India as a “replacement” for the Russian oil that’s been fueling the country since 2022.
Add businessleague.in as a Preferred Source
The thing is, this isn’t just about trade—it’s a geopolitical squeeze play with some seriously high stakes. Or nothing.
Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1
The “Crude Swap”: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the White House is using tariffs as a literal hammer to reshape India’s energy basket. Here’s the ground reality:
The Russian Exit: India’s intake of Russian oil is expected to tank. We’re talking a drop from 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January to potentially as low as 500,000 bpd by March. Let’s be real—at a 50% tariff on Russian-linked goods, even “cheap” Russian oil becomes a luxury India can’t afford. Those too.
The Venezuelan Rebound: After US special forces captured Nicolas Maduro on January 3, the Trump administration took “indefinite control” of Venezuela’s oil flows. Now, they’re telling New Delhi: “Stop buying from Putin, and we’ll let you buy from Caracas again.”
Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1
The Price War: Here’s the kicker—Russian oil is currently being dumped at “fire-sale” prices as low as $22–$25 per barrel just to keep Indian refiners interested. Meanwhile, the US wants to use Venezuelan supply to drive global prices down to a 50 target. Or nothing.
Refiner Reality: Giants like Reliance and HPCL are already shifting. Reliance is reportedly capped at 150,000 bpd of Russian oil for February, while other state refiners have virtually stopped buying “non-compliant” barrels to avoid the US tariff trap.
Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1
India’s Oil Import Pivot (2026 Forecast)
| Crude Source | Status (Jan 2026) | Trend (By March 2026) | The “Catch” |
| Russia | 1.2 Million bpd | ↓ 600,000 bpd | High tariff penalties on all Indian exports. |
| Venezuela | Near Zero | ↑ 200,000+ bpd | Supply now “managed” by US authorities. |
| Brazil/OPEC | Increasing | ↑ Steady Growth | BPCL just signed a $780M deal with Brazil. |
| USA | Increasing | ↑ Preferred Partner | Key to securing a broader US-India trade deal. |
And Here’s the Kicker…
India is using this “diversification” as a bargaining chip. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri hinted at India Energy Week that our massive demand gives us “a little bit of a position” to negotiate better deals. The thing is, if India plays this right, they might get a waiver on those 50% tariffs in exchange for ditching Moscow. Those too.
One side comment—the Venezuelan transition is still messy. With Maduro gone and a new “interim” government opening the sector to private capital, the infrastructure is a wreck. It might take months for those “replacement” barrels to actually hit Indian shores in bulk. It’s an ongoing situation. Or nothing.
Also Read |Tamil Nadu Voter List Purge: 97 Lakh Names Deleted in SIR Phase 1
End…
Add businessleague.in as a Preferred Source
