It’s Friday, January 23, 2026, and the Indian Rupee is finally coming up for air. After a brutal six-day losing streak that saw it gasping at an all-time low of 91.74, it staged a 17-paise recovery this morning to hit 91.41.
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The thing is, the “Trump Factor” is working in India’s favor for once. Or nothing.
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The Rupee’s “Arctic” Recovery: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the currency’s fate is being decided in Davos and the Arctic Circle rather than Mumbai. Here’s the ground reality:
The Greenland Relief: President Trump basically backed off from threatening Europe with tariffs over Greenland. This “softer rhetoric” eased the immediate trade-war anxiety. When the world stops panicking, the Dollar loses its “bully” status, allowing the Rupee to breathe. Those too.
The “Fantastic Man” Trade: At Davos, Trump called PM Modi a “fantastic man” and a friend, declaring that a “good” trade deal is coming. The thing is, we’ve heard this before, but with Indian exports currently facing a 50% US tariff, even a vague promise of a deal acted like a shot of adrenaline for the markets.
The RBI’s Shadow: Let’s be real—the recovery isn’t just about diplomacy. The RBI has been burning through billions. They reportedly deployed over 2 billion in FX swaps this week just to stop the 92.00 level from being breached. And here’s the kicker—they’ve sold nearly 10 billion in the spot market recently. Or nothing.
FII Exodus: The thing is, foreign investors are still dumping Indian stocks like they’re on fire. They offloaded another ₹2,549 crore yesterday alone. If domestic institutional investors (DIIs) weren’t buying the dip (to the tune of ₹4,222 crore), the Rupee would likely be at 93 already.
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Currency & Market Snapshot: Jan 23, 2026
| Metric | Current Level | The “Ground” Reality |
| USD/INR Rate | 91.41 | Recovered from 91.74 record low. |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.36 | Cooling off as geopolitical risk premiums fade. |
| Brent Crude | $64.62 /bbl | Up 0.87%; higher oil prices are still a “Rupee killer.” |
| Key Resistance | 92.00 | The psychological ceiling the RBI is defending. |
| Nifty 50 | 25,300.45 | Hovering around the flatline; waiting for Budget cues. |
And Here’s the Kicker…
The thing is, we’re in a “consolidation phase.” Analysts are saying that if the Union Budget on Feb 1 doesn’t address the FII concerns or if the US trade deal stays “pending,” we could see a slide toward 93.00. Let’s be real—the Rupee is Asia’s worst-performing currency right now, and one Davos speech won’t fix that. Those too.
One side comment—the RBI is pushing for Digital Currency to be on the BRICS agenda. It’s an ongoing situation where India is desperately trying to “de-dollarize” parts of its trade to avoid these volatile swings. Or nothing.
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End…
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