India’s energy strategy just hit a massive, Trump-shaped wall. As of Tuesday, January 6, 2026, the world’s largest refining complex at Jamnagar—run by Reliance Industries—has essentially ghosted Russian crude.1 Reliance says it isn’t expecting a single drop of Russian oil this month.2
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The thing is, this wasn’t just a random business decision. It happened right after Donald Trump hopped on Air Force One on Sunday and basically told the world that India needs to “make him happy” if they want to avoid even higher tariffs. Or nothing. Let’s be real, when the US has already slapped a 50% tariff on your goods, you start listening. Those too.
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The “Oil Pivot” Log: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where New Delhi is trying to balance its “strategic autonomy” with the reality of a trade war.
The “Kicker”: Reliance hasn’t received a Russian cargo in three weeks.3 They even took to X (formerly Twitter) to call out reports saying otherwise as “blatantly untrue.”
The Tariff Trap: Trump’s logic is simple: India buys Russian oil 4$\rightarrow$ Russia gets money for the Ukraine war 5$\rightarrow$ The US punishes India with tariffs.6 He’s already hinted he can raise them “very quickly” beyond the current 50%.
The Numbers: India’s Russian imports were at 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December—a three-year low.7 Analysts think that’s going to crater to under 1 million bpd this month.
The “Weekly Snitch” Rule: The Indian government is now making refiners disclose their Russian vs. US oil purchases every week. It’s a paper trail for Washington to show that India is “behaving.”
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The Winners & Losers of the Shift
[Table: India’s Shifting Oil Desk – Jan 2026]
| Buyer | Status | The “Russia” Factor |
| Reliance Industries | Halt | Shutting the door to protect its massive US export market. |
| Nayara Energy | Active | Mostly owned by Rosneft; they have fewer options due to EU sanctions. |
| State Refiners (IOC/BPCL) | Minimal | Scaled back significantly; sticking to long-term “safe” contracts. |
| US Oil Suppliers | Surging | India’s US oil imports hit a 7-month high in November. |
The “Compact” Context
And here’s the kicker: this is all about the India-US COMPACT. India wants a trade deal. Trump wants Russia isolated. To get the deal, India is essentially swapping out discounted Urals for more expensive American crude.
The thing is, the IT sector in India is already feeling the burn—stocks dropped 2.5% on Monday just on the fear of higher tariffs.8 It’s a messy, high-stakes poker game where the stakes are India’s energy bill versus its export economy.
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