The carefully orchestrated breakfast meeting between Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar was anything but casual. All signs point to the two leaders finalizing the details of a planned transfer of power in Shivakumar’s favor, potentially by March-April 2026.
The entire event was framed as a display of unity, with a photo of the two enjoying staple Karnataka breakfast items like upma, idli, and kesari bath—a clear subliminal message that the long-standing internal strife has been managed.
The Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah Compromise Formula
Sources indicate the two leaders met to work out the details of what is being called the Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah compromise formula. This transition is designed to avoid a public spectacle and prevent abruptly unseating a longtime Congress leader like Siddaramaiah, which could hurt the party.
Shivakumar is likely to agree to this phased approach due to several political realities:
He remains the state Congress chief.
His loyalists are expected to secure more cabinet berths in an upcoming reshuffle.
He currently lacks the numbers for a hostile move against the CM.
This deal is seen as the best possible arrangement he could secure under the circumstances.
The final arrangements are expected to be put before the party’s central leaders, whom Shivakumar is reportedly flying to Delhi to meet this evening. Siddaramaiah, described as being in a “comfortable position,” will not be traveling.
The Caste Calculus: A Delicate Balance
The transition is critically dependent on managing the state’s complex caste calculus. The Congress party cannot afford to alienate either leader’s support base.
Siddaramaiah’s Base: He is the most powerful face of the ‘AHINDA’ political alignment, a massive formation comprising minorities, backward classes, and Dalits, aimed at challenging traditional dominant groups.
Shivakumar’s Base: He is the prominent face of the OBC Vokkaliga community, a major caste group the Congress party cannot afford to lose.
The handover, when it happens, will be tested by how much trust Shivakumar can afford to place on the outgoing Chief Minister and how well their respective support bases accept the arrangement.
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