The long-simmering tension between Islamabad and Kabul has finally reached a breaking point. In an unprecedented move, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif announced on Friday that the two nations are now in an “open war” situation. This declaration followed a night of heavy airstrikes by the Pakistani Air Force on major Afghan cities and fierce ground battles along the disputed Durand Line.
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The conflict, which spiked during the month of Ramadan, represents the most significant military confrontation between the neighbors since the Taliban took power in 2021.
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Airstrikes in the Heartland: Kabul and Kandahar Targeted
Pakistan’s military response was “comprehensive and decisive,” according to President Asif Ali Zardari.
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The Targets: Airstrikes were reported in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia. While the Taliban claims no casualties occurred in these specific strikes, the psychological impact of jets over the Afghan capital has fundamentally altered the diplomatic landscape.
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Air Defense: Unconfirmed reports from Afghan local media suggest a Pakistani aircraft was downed during the exchange, though Islamabad has yet to acknowledge any hardware losses.
The Battle for the Durand Line: Claims of Captured Bases
The Afghan Ministry of National Defense detailed a massive retaliatory operation that began at 8 PM on Thursday.
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Frontline Gains: Taliban forces claim to have captured 19 Pakistani posts and 2 military bases near the Paktika and Paktia sectors.
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Hardware Capture: The Taliban released unverified footage claiming the capture of a large military transport vehicle and the destruction of a tank.
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The Toll: Afghanistan alleges 55 Pakistani fatalities; Pakistan rejects this, stating only two soldiers were martyred while inflicting heavy punishment on fighters in the Chitral and Bajaur sectors.
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Conflicting Narratives: The Information War
As is common in cross-border conflicts, the primary battlefield is currently the “information space.”
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Pakistan’s Stance: Information Minister Attaullah Tarar maintains that the Taliban initiated “unprovoked firing” and that Pakistan is merely defending its territorial integrity.
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Afghanistan’s Stance: Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid frames the Taliban’s actions as a response to the “martyrdom of women and children” by Pakistani military circles.
Reality Check
The declaration of “open war” is a massive escalation in rhetoric. Still, neither side has yet committed to a full-scale ground invasion beyond the immediate border zones. Therefore, while the casualty claims (55 vs. 133) are likely inflated for domestic consumption, the physical damage to border infrastructure is very real. In fact, the Durand Line has been a flashpoint for over a century, and the current “war” is a continuation of a historical dispute over a border that Afghanistan has never formally recognized.
The Loopholes
Pakistan denies any of its soldiers were captured. In fact, this is a “Denial Loophole”—if soldiers are indeed in Afghan custody, acknowledging it would force Pakistan into a weakened negotiating position. Therefore, Islamabad is likely treating the situation as a “counter-terrorism” operation rather than an interstate war. Still, the “Ramadan Loophole”—fighting escalating during a holy month—is being used by both sides to drum up religious fervor and nationalist sentiment among their respective populations.
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What This Means for You
If you are involved in hcross-border trade or logistics, cease all operations at Torkham and Chaman immediately. First, realize that both countries ave closed key transit points, and civilian evacuations are underway. Then, if you are a traveler in the region, avoid border provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or Nangarhar, as mortar fire is reportedly landing in civilian villages.
Finally, understand that regional stability is at its lowest point in years. You should monitor official statements from the UN Security Council, as international mediation (possibly by Qatar or China) will be necessary to prevent this from turning into a regional conflagration. Before you trust casualty figures on social media, wait for independent verification from international humanitarian agencies.
What’s Next
Expect the UN Security Council to call for an emergency session by Saturday. Then, look for China or Qatar to offer an immediate mediation window to prevent the conflict from disrupting regional economic corridors. Finally, the Torkham border crossing will likely remain closed for weeks, leading to a significant spike in commodity prices in both Kabul and Peshawar.
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