Oil markets are stuck in a “geopolitical tug-of-war” this Tuesday, December 23, 2025.1 After a 2% surge yesterday, prices are holding steady as traders try to figure out if the supply scares in Venezuela and the Black Sea are actual game-changers or just noise.
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The thing is, we’re seeing a classic clash between “scary headlines” and “boring math.” While the headlines talk about naval blockades and drone strikes, the math from analysts like Barclays and the IEA still points to a massive oil surplus coming in early 2026.2 Or nothing. Let’s be real, even if Venezuela stops exporting tomorrow, the world is currently swimming in crude. Those too.
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The “Blockade” in the Caribbean
Donald Trump’s “Operation Southern Spear” has turned the Caribbean into a no-go zone for sanctioned tankers.3
The Seizures: Following the dramatic helicopter raid on the Skipper on December 10, the U.S. Coast Guard boarded another supertanker, the Centuries, on December 20.4
The “Quarantine”: While Trump calls it a blockade, the Pentagon is using the term “quarantine.”5 It sounds less like an act of war and more like a “right to visit” inspection.
The Kicker: Millions of barrels are currently stuck in Venezuelan waters because captains are terrified of being the next ones boarded by U.S. Marines.
The Black Sea Firefight
While the U.S. squeezes Venezuela, Ukraine is systematically dismantling Russia’s energy logistics
Taman Terminal Strike: Yesterday, Ukrainian drones hit the Tamanneftegaz terminal in Krasnodar.7 This isn’t just a minor fire; it’s one of the largest LPG and oil hubs in the region.8
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The Damage: We’re looking at a pipeline, two piers, and at least two vessels hit. Russian fuel exports from the Black Sea are effectively paralyzed right now.
Ongoing Risks: Ukraine has expanded its “shadow fleet hunt” all the way to the Mediterranean, recently striking a Russian tanker off the coast of Libya.
Oil Prices: Dec 23, 2025 (12:30 PM IST)
| Benchmark | Price (USD) | Change |
| Brent Crude | $62.01 | -0.10% |
| WTI (US Oil) | $57.92 | -0.16% |
And here’s the kicker: Barclays estimates that the global oil surplus will stay around 1.9 million barrels per day through 2026.9 This means that despite the “naval piracy” and drone wars, we aren’t likely to see $100 oil anytime soon unless the Persian Gulf gets involved. It’s a “well-supplied” market facing “illicit supply” disruptions.
It’s an ongoing situation where the “shadow fleet”—the secret tankers that help countries bypass sanctions—is finally meeting its match in high-tech naval enforcement and drone warfare.
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End…
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