After a five-day rally that saw prices hit multi-month highs, oil traders are hitting the “sell” button today, Thursday, January 15, 2026.1 The market just saw a sharp 3% drop, and it’s all down to a surprise pivot from the White House.
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The thing is, President Trump just cooled the jets on the Iran situation.2 Or nothing. Let’s be real, the world was bracing for an imminent U.S. strike after a massive crackdown on protesters left over 3,400 dead.3 Those too. But Trump stepped out on Wednesday afternoon to say he’s been told the “killing has stopped” and executions are being called off.4
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The “Iran Cool-Off” Log: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the “war premium” is evaporating faster than expected.
The Numbers: Brent crude is down to 64.57, and WTI (the U.S. benchmark) has slid to 60.16.5 The thing is, oil was up 10% over the last week on pure fear.6 Now that Trump says he’ll “watch it and see” instead of launching a strike, that fear is gone.
The “Halt” at the Border: Trump claims he has “good authority” from the other side that the executions won’t happen.7 The thing is, Tehran is sending mixed signals.8 Their foreign minister told Fox News that “hanging is out of the question,” but they’re still warning of retaliation if the U.S. doesn’t back off.9
The 3% Factor: Iran only makes up about 3% of global oil (roughly 3.3 million barrels a day).10 The thing is, any disruption to that 3% usually sends the whole market into a tailspin. And here’s the kicker—the U.S. has already started pulling some personnel out of Qatar as a precaution against “possible Iranian threats.”11
The Inventory Glut: It’s not just politics. The thing is, the EIA just reported a massive jump in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories.12 We have more oil than we thought, right as the tension is easing.
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Energy Market Snapshot: Jan 15, 2026
| Benchmark | Current Price | Today’s Change | Weekly Trend |
| Brent Crude | $64.57 | -2.93% | Paused 5-day rally |
| WTI Crude | $60.16 | -3.00% | Back to early Jan levels |
| Natural Gas13 | $3.1314 | +0.37%15 | Stable16 |
| Gold17 | $4,590.5718 | -0.81%19 | Easing from record peaks20 |
And Here’s the Kicker…
While Trump is playing peacemaker with Iran, he’s playing hardball with Venezuela. The thing is, he just spoke with their interim leader and hinted that Venezuelan oil exports might be ramped up to “stabilize” the market.21
It’s an ongoing situation where the U.S. is trying to replace Iranian “risk” oil with Venezuelan “deal” oil. And then there’s the 25% tariff Trump just slapped on advanced AI chips like the Nvidia H200—effectively making the U.S. a “partner” in every sale to China. The thing is, 2026 is becoming the year of the “Executive Cut.”
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End…
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