It’s Tuesday afternoon, February 3, 2026, and if you thought the Budget drama was the peak of the week, the floor of Parliament just turned into a battlefield. The cause? A sudden, late-night phone call between PM Modi and President Trump that essentially reshaped India’s global trade and energy map in 30 minutes.
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The thing is, while the markets are cheering a massive tariff cut, the Opposition is screaming “surrender.” Or nothing.
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The India-US Trade Deal: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the “Buy American” mantra is meeting the “Make in India” dream, and the collision is messy. Here’s the ground reality:
The 50% to 18% “Cliff”: Last year, Trump hit India with a massive 50% tariff (a 25% reciprocal levy plus a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil). As of today, that’s been slashed to 18%. To put that in perspective, Indian exporters now have a better rate than Pakistan (19%) and Vietnam (20%). It’s a huge relief for textiles and leather. Those too.
The Russian Oil “Divorce”: This is the kicker. Trump announced that PM Modi has agreed to stop buying Russian oil “effective immediately.” Instead, India will pivot to US energy and potentially Venezuela. The thing is, India was getting huge discounts from Moscow, and the Opposition is asking: “At what cost to our sovereignty?” And then the adjournment motions followed.
The $500 Billion Bill: India has reportedly pledged to buy 500 billion worth of US energy, tech, and agricultural products. Let’s be real—that’s a staggering number that would basically tie the Indian economy to the US for a decade.
The “Secret” Deal: Jairam Ramesh and the Congress are furious that the news came from Truth Social (Trump’s platform) before a single official document was tabled in the Indian Parliament. They’re demanding to see the full text. They suspect “Operation Sindoor” (the supposed US mediation with Pakistan) was the leverage used to force this deal. Or nothing.
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Trade Deal Snapshot: Winners & Losers
| Feature | The Old Status (2025) | The New Deal (2026) |
| US Tariff on India | 50% (Punitive) | 18% (Competitive) |
| Russian Oil | ~1.5 Million bpd | Phasing to Zero |
| Agri-Imports | Restricted/High Duty | Liberalized for US Farmers |
| Energy Source | Russia / Middle East | US / Venezuela / Coal |
| Strategic Stance | Strategic Autonomy | Deep Alignment with US/EU |
And Here’s the Kicker…
While the Opposition talks about “surrender,” the Sensex jumped over 3,600 points this morning. The industry is ecstatic. The thing is, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins is already celebrating “pumping cash into rural America” by opening India’s massive food market. If US apples and walnuts flood our markets, the “surrender” narrative might actually stick with Indian farmers. Those too.
One side comment—Shiv Sena’s Priyanka Chaturvedi pointed out that we’re dropping our own tariffs to ZERO for the US. It’s an ongoing situation. Authentic, but definitely a gamble on whether the export boost can offset the energy bill. Or nothing.
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End…
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