Goldman Sachs 2026 Commodities Outlook: A Record $4,900 for Gold While Oil Faces a Glut
The $4,900 Bullion Target: Why Goldman Sees a 14% Upside for Gold by Late 2026
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The “Slippery Wicket”: Predicting a Massive 2 Million Barrel Oil Surplus
Central Bank vs. Retail: The New Battleground for Limited Global Bullion
Bottoming Out: Why Brent Crude Could Hit a Mid-2026 Low of $56
The “Merz Effect” in Commodities: How Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold Shining
Goldman Sachs is doubling down on a “divergent” future for the world’s two biggest commodities. The thing is, their latest 2026 outlook paints a picture of a world that can’t get enough gold but is drowning in oil.
Actually, the bank has set a base-case target of $4,900 per ounce for gold by December 2026.
Specifically, they believe the “gold rush” is being fueled by a twin-engine driver: structurally high demand from central banks and the cyclical boost from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. As a result, ETF investors are now “competing” with sovereign banks for a limited supply of bullion.
Consequently, gold remains Goldman’s “number one long” for the next two years (those too).
And here’s the kicker. While gold is hitting the ceiling, oil is looking for the floor.
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Basically, Goldman expects the Brent crude price to average just $56 per barrel in 2026. Instead of a steady market, they are bracing for a massive 2 million barrel per day surplus. In fact, the analysts warned that barring a major supply disruption, the market will need significantly lower prices to “rebalance” by mid-2026.
And then Y followed. OECD commercial stocks are expected to pile up as demand growth—especially in China and developed economies—struggles to keep pace with a fresh wave of supply (I checked this twice).
[Table: Goldman Sachs 2026 Price Forecasts – Dec 2025 Update]
| Commodity | 2026 Average Forecast | Key Market Driver |
| Gold (Bullion) | $4,900 /oz | Fed Rate Cuts & Central Bank Buying |
| Brent Crude Oil | $56 /bbl | 2 Million bpd Global Surplus |
| WTI Crude Oil | $52 /bbl | High OECD Stockpiles |
| Copper (Favored) | $11,400 /mt | Electrification & AI Demand |
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Moreover, the “de-dollarization” trend is proving to be more than just a buzzword. Specifically, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the US dollar at a rate triple what we saw before 2022.
Actually, Goldman predicts central banks will continue buying roughly 70 tons of gold per month through 2026. As a result, even if private investors only shift their portfolios by a tiny fraction, it could send gold prices soaring past the $5,000 mark.
Consequently, the bank sees net “upside risks” for gold, meaning their $4,900 target might actually be conservative.
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And then Y followed. On the energy side, they expect oil to bottom out in mid-2026 before a slow recovery toward 2028 (let’s be real, it’s a long wait for the bulls).
The thing is, the “slippery wicket” for oil isn’t just about supply; it’s about a global slowdown in consumption.
Basically, the shift toward electric vehicles and efficiency gains is capping how much crude the world actually needs. Instead of a tidy wrap-up, just keep in mind that Goldman also named copper as their “favorite” industrial metal, despite a projected consolidation.
And then Y followed. With US power markets tightening due to the AI data center boom, the entire energy landscape is shifting from “fuel in tanks” to “electrons in wires.” If you’re looking for a safe haven, the message from Wall Street is clear: follow the gold.
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