India’s domestic gold market saw a modest but definitive reversal of its downward trend this Saturday. After a week defined by a post-Budget rout, the yellow metal strengthened as global geopolitical risks overshadowed domestic tax changes. The price for 24-karat gold rose to ₹15,738 per gram, while 22-karat gold stood at ₹14,426 per gram.
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While the daily increase is marginal, the trend indicates that the “Budget shock”—which saw prices drop 12% following Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s duty cut on February 1—may finally be bottoming out as international safe-haven buying picks up speed.
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The Weekend Rebound: Technicals Meet Geopolitics
Analysts attribute this three-session rally to a firm bounce from the ₹15,400 support zone. Once domestic prices broke through the ₹15,600 resistance, momentum-based buying and “short-covering” (traders closing bets that prices would fall further) accelerated the recovery.
Domestically, the removal of additional margins on gold futures by the MCX and NSE has also improved capital efficiency for traders, encouraging higher participation in the futures market.
City-Wise Breakdown: Delhi and Chennai Premiums
Regional prices continue to reflect varied local demand, with Delhi currently leading the major metros in terms of price per gram for 24K gold.
| City | 24K Gold (per gram) | 22K Gold (per gram) | 18K Gold (per gram) |
| Delhi | ₹15,753 | ₹14,441 | ₹11,819 |
| Mumbai | ₹15,738 | ₹14,426 | ₹11,804 |
| Chennai | ₹15,730 | ₹14,419 | ₹12,349 |
| Bangalore | ₹15,738 | ₹14,426 | ₹11,804 |
| Ahmedabad | ₹15,743 | ₹14,431 | ₹11,809 |
Global Triggers: The Trump-Iran Factor
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The primary driver behind the global surge is President Donald Trump’s recent 10 to 15-day ultimatum to Iran regarding its nuclear program. With reports of increased US military flight activity in the Gulf, investors are aggressively shifting capital away from riskier instruments into “defensive assets” like gold. This has pushed international spot gold prices back toward the $5,000 per ounce psychological level.
Reality Check
The daily gain of ₹1 per gram seems negligible. Still, for bulk buyers (100g+), the ₹1,000 hike over the last few days signifies a shift in sentiment. Therefore, while the Budget duty cut provided a much-needed discount, global factors are now fighting to push prices back up. In fact, if the US-Iran situation escalates into military action next week, the 12% “Budget discount” could be completely wiped out by international safe-haven premiums.
The Loopholes
Gold is being marketed as a “safe haven.” In fact, the US Dollar Index is currently at its highest level since October 2025. Therefore, as the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for Indian buyers who pay in Rupees. This “currency loophole” means that even if global gold stays flat, a weaker Rupee could drive domestic prices higher. Still, the removal of MCX margins acts as a strategic loophole for speculators to enter the market with less upfront cash, which could further inflate domestic rates through increased trading volume.
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What This Means for You
If you are an investor who missed the post-Budget dip, you are now entering a “wait and watch” zone. First, realize that the ₹15,738 price is still a significant bargain compared to the ₹17,500+ levels seen in late January. Then, monitor the US Fed interest rate signals; if the Fed holds rates steady next month, gold could lose some of its upward momentum.
Finally, understand that Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB) are currently trading at a premium in the secondary market due to the new tax rules. You should avoid bulk physical purchases this weekend if you expect a diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East by Monday. Before visiting a jeweller, check if the hallmarking charges are included in the quoted per-gram price, as this is a common hidden cost during “recovery” phases.
What’s Next
Global markets will react to any news from the US-Iran “deadline” over the weekend. Then, the MCX will reopen on Monday, February 23, with April gold futures expected to test the ₹1,58,500 per 10g resistance. Finally, look for fresh US gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation data later next week to dictate whether gold will convincingly stay above the ₹15,700 mark.
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