It’s Friday, January 23, 2026, and if you’ve been watching the gold charts, you’re looking at a literal mountain range. Just when it looked like the rally was cooling off after some massive profit booking yesterday, the yellow metal just hit another eye-watering record of 4,970 per ounce on Comex.
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The thing is, the “safe-haven” trade is getting weirdly tangled up in Arctic diplomacy and central bank drama. Or nothing.
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Gold’s Record Run: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where every time the “Greenland tension” eases, another domestic trigger pops up. Here’s the ground reality of why gold is basically a rocket ship right now:
The Greenland Pivot: President Trump’s recent “NATO framework” stance on Greenland calmed the immediate trade war fears with Europe.1 This led to that “classic safe-haven liquidation” we saw yesterday. Let’s be real—investors were just looking for an excuse to cash out at the top. Those too.
The “Budget Premium”: Here’s the kicker for India—the Union Budget on February 1 is the biggest elephant in the room. There is widespread speculation that the government might reverse the July 2024 duty cut (raising it back from 6%). This fear is driving MCX gold to trade at “abnormal premiums” as people stockpile before the tax man arrives.
Fed Independence Jitters: Over in the US, the January 27-28 Fed meeting is looming.2 But it’s not just about rates. The thing is, the DOJ’s subpoenas to Jerome Powell have people worried about the Fed’s independence.3 When the dollar looks “politicized,” people buy gold. Or nothing.
The technical “Red Flag”: Even though we’re near $5,000/oz, analysts are pointing to a divergence in RSI.4 Basically, the price is making higher highs, but the momentum isn’t keeping up. It’s a classic “warning” that a pullback to the ₹1,42,000 levels (on MCX) could happen if the Budget doesn’t bring the expected duty hike.
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Gold & Silver Price Matrix (Jan 23, 2026)
| Market | Current Rate | The “Ground” Reality |
| Comex Gold (Spot) | $4,954 /oz | Sitting just below the new $4,970 peak. |
| MCX Gold (Feb) | ₹1,56,540 /10g | Up 0.13% today; premium over global rates is 3-4%. |
| Silver (Comex) | $98.98 /oz | Silver is actually outperforming gold in percentage gains. |
| MCX Silver5 | ₹3,23,000 /kg6 | Up 7% in a single week due to Budget speculation.7 |
And Here’s the Kicker…
The thing is, the “marriage season” demand in India has basically stalled. Let’s be real—at ₹1.5 lakh per tola, people are either selling their old gold or switching to 14K “lightweight” jewelry just to keep the tradition alive. Those too.
One side comment—Goldman Sachs just raised their 2026 target to $5,400.8 It’s an ongoing situation where the “Arctic tensions” might be cooling, but the “Stagflation” fears for late 2026 are keeping the floor very high. Or nothing.
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End…
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